2023 Oscars: Early Best Supporting Actress Predictions

We will update all our Oscar predictions throughout the season, so keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Oscar race. The nomination round of voting will take place from January 12 to January 17, 2023, with the official Oscar nominations announced on January 24, 2023. The final voting is between March 2 and 7, 2023. Finally, the 94th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

In this year’s Supporting Actress field, several Oscar vets are vying against rival newbies. Oscar voters sometimes reward their favorites more than once. Three-time winner Frances McDormand is back in the fray, as producer and star of Sarah Polley’s Mennonite sexual assault drama “Women Talking” (Plan B, UA Releasing), joined in the cast by previous Oscar nominees Rooney Mara and Jessie Buckley, who could all wind up in the Supporting Actress category. (The film plays Venice and TIFF.)

Vying for a second Oscar after “Les Miserables” is Anne Hathaway, who plays a high-strung Queens housewife in James Gray’s autofiction Cannes entry “Armageddon Time” (Focus), as well as “Marriage Story” winner Laura Dern, as the first wife of Hugh Jackman in “The Son” (SPC), Florian Zeller’s follow-up to his Oscar-winning “The Father.” Recent nominee Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”) plays the second.

Long overdue is four-time nominee Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”), who plays the mother of Steven Spielberg in TIFF world premiere “The Febelmans” (Universal). Nominated for “Pieces of April” in 2004, Patricia Clarkson stars in Maria Schrader’s true journalism story “She Said” (Universal). Emerging from Cannes with rave reviews was recent Oscar nominee Kristen Stewart, who plays an eager scientist with a crush on a performance artist (Viggo Mortensen) in David Cronenberg’s “Crimes of the Future” (Neon).

“Crimes of the Future”

Neon/screencap

Several actresses are seeking their first Oscar acting mentions: Famed German actress Nina Hoss stars opposite Cate Blanchett in Todd Field’s “TAR” (Focus). Often labeled as a horror icon or comedy actress, BAFTA-winner Jamie Lee Curtis (“Trading Places”) could land her first nomination for sending up multiple genres in A24 breakout hit “Everything Everywhere All at Once” ($100.7 million worldwide); her costar Stephanie Hsu as the gay daughter of Michelle Yeoh could also land a nod.  Zoe Kravitz boasted two strong roles in 2022, in Steven Soderbergh’s Hitchcockian thriller “Kimi” (which went straight to HBO Max) and as Catwoman opposite Robert Pattinson in Matt Reeves’ “The Batman” (Warner Bros.).

Several sprawling ensembles will need to shake things out, from David O. Russell’s “Amsterdam” to Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon,” depending on who nabs the best screen time.

Contenders are listed in alphabetical order, below. No film will be deemed a frontrunner unless I have seen it.

Frontrunners
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Anne Hathaway (“Armageddon Time”)
Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Zoe Kravitz (“The Batman”)
Kristen Stewart (“Crimes of the Future”)

Contenders
Jessie Buckley (“Women Talking”)
Patricia Clarkson (“She Said”)
Laura Dern (“The Son”)
Nina Hoss (“TAR”)
Vanessa Kirby (“The Son”)
Rooney Mara (“Women Talking”)
Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

Long Shots
Gillian Anderson (“The Pale Blue Eye”)
Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Ximena Lamadrid (“Bardo”)
Lashana Lynch (“The Woman King”)
Noemie Merlant (“TAR”)
Samantha Morton (“She Said,” “The Whale”)
Julianne Nicholson (“Blonde”)
Zoe Saldana (“Amsterdam,” “Avatar: The Way of Water”)
Griselda Sicillani (“Bardo”)
Jean Smart (“Babylon”)
Anya Taylor-Joy (“Amsterdam,” “The Menu”)
Olivia Wilde (“Babylon”)
Kate Winslet (“Avatar: The Way of Water”)

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